K-12 enrollment is on the decline between a combination of dropping birth rates and more school choice options putting schools in a tight bind.
The public school system is expected to see a drop of millions of students over the next five years, a hit that will affect schools financially and potentially lead to the closure of more districts. Ways to combat this phenomenon are limited as experts say schools will have to look at scaling down operations or competing with other educational institutions.
From fall 2019 to fall 2023, a 2.5 percent drop in enrollment occurred, taking over a million kids out of the K-12 system. The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) projects enrollment will go from 51 million in 2019 to 47 million by 2031.
The main contributors to this decline are largely out of a school district’s control such as declining birth rates and migrations out of certain states.
“We believe the primary contributing factor is likely the U.S. birth rate is just at historic lows right now, which means that less students are even being born to be funneled into the public school system and we definitely see that with kindergarten and first grade having pretty significant drops in the past couple of years,” Tara Moon, a policy analyst at Future Ed, said.
The National Center for Health Statistics found the fertility rate in the U.S. has dropped 2 percent annually from 2014 to 2020. In 2022, a historic low occurred when the birth rate fell by 3 percent.
Another problem for some districts is families moving from California and New York to places like Florida.
“Additionally, we see a lot of in states like New York and California, families are leaving major urban centers that are more expensive for more affordable areas outside the city,” Moon said. “And, in the past, immigration has been able to offset these declining birth rates, but estimates are saying right now that it won’t be enough to sustain the decline in enrollment.”
But other factors can be in a school’s control such as students leaving the public school system for other school choice options.
Since COVID-19, the interest in homeschooling and private school options has exploded, especially as states pass legislation making it easier for individuals to go to other schools and taking some money from public school systems to do it.
Information sourced from the Homeschool Research Lab at the John Hopkins Institute for Education Policy.foundEven though many thought homeschooling rates would drop after the pandemic’s peak, 90% of states that monitor homeschooling numbers saw an increase during the 2022-2023 academic year.
Carrie Hahnel, a senior associate partner at Bellwether, stated, “It’s crucial to examine the part played by private school choice initiatives in this situation.” She added, “Education savings accounts have grown substantially nationwide.”
She noted that Bellwether’s calculations suggest roughly 40% of students in kindergarten through 12th grade can now utilize some form of Education Savings Account or voucher. These programs, she continued, could draw students away from conventional public schools and into private alternatives, and they might also have a broader impact on the financial resources available for public education as a whole.
Decreasing student enrollment is almost always bad news for school districts, as their funding is tied to strong enrollment figures. One result of this decline has been school shutdowns; the Reason Foundation discovered data from 15 states indicating 98 schools closed during the 2023-2024 academic year.
Schools have also attempted to reduce expenses by eliminating courses and staff roles.
Lin Johnson, the chief strategy, growth, and finance officer at TNTP, an organization dedicated to enhancing public education, stated that decreasing student numbers essentially means fewer resources, less assistance, and diminished opportunities for students on a per-student basis.
“So, as those numbers drop, funding drops, it means fewer teachers, bigger class size,” Johnson continued. “It means [a] cut in terms of supports that we care about, like arts, extra curriculum sports as well, that our young people truly do thrive on.”
While some schools may have to downsize, according to specialists, it’s not necessarily a negative situation. The issue might stem from state mandates when attempting to design a school tailored for a limited group of learners.
Matthew Joseph, a senior policy advisor for education funding at ExcelinEd, explained that states frequently dictate to districts and schools precisely how to allocate funds, specifying staffing levels for particular roles. He added that a challenge arises when enrollment declines (e.g., a 10 percent drop) and the need for certain resources diminishes (e.g., chemistry classes requiring only 75 percent of their previous capacity), yet the state mandates maintaining the same number of personnel.
To illustrate further, they can reduce their teaching staff by one,” Joseph went on. “However, if the state mandates that they must dismiss teachers based on seniority, they are forced to let go of the newest, most recently employed teachers, rather than identifying and removing a redundant teacher or one who isn’t performing optimally.
He continued, “Therefore, rather than potentially eliminating a single, highly-paid employee, you might need to let go of three individuals. This would result in the school having three fewer staff members, as opposed to just one.”
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