The Constitution of the United Statesdetails a complicated system of government that has largely functioned well over the past 237 years since it came into effect with the ninth state’s approval,New Hampshire, in 1788.
There have been, of course, exceptions.Abraham Lincolnmade exceptional efforts to suppress the uprising of eleven Southern states.Franklin Rooseveltignored legal precedents and arbitrarily reset the value of gold each day.
President Donald TrumpDuring his second term, he has been engaging in similar tactics by using threats of unconventional actions to persuade others to act according to his preferences. And it has been quite effective so far.
He has used a bold reading of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to generatetariffson nations that are friendly or hostile. Many have reacted favorably, quietly accepting imposts and offering false compliments.
He has stated he is terminating a member of theFederal ReserveBoard of Governors, despite unclear legal authority and a Supreme Court opinion that warned the president’s power to remove executive branch employees does not apply to the Fed. However, financial markets have not reacted negatively, and the Fed chairman has begun to reduce interest rates, as requested by Trump.
However, his most powerful approach through intimidation has focused on removing undocumented immigrants. By sending one undocumented individual (referred to in headlines as the “Maryland father”) to El Salvador and warning others that they could be sent to its harsh prisons, by engaging in public conflicts with officials from “sanctuary cities,” and by displaying (in certain instances reasonable) disrespect for rulings by federal judges, he appears to have encouraged the exit of hundreds of thousands of undocumented individuals from the United States.
The data, as is often the case with illegal immigration, is not exact. However, it originates from various sources that have gained some credibility for their thorough analysis.
The Pew Research Center, in areport released last week, estimated that the country’s “unauthorized” immigrant population rose from 10.2 million in the pre-COVID-19 year of 2019 to 14 million in 2023, along with an additional 3 million in 2023-24.
The Immigration Studies Center, which has advocated for stricter controls on immigration,on an August 12 report, referenced Census Bureau data indicating the total foreign-born population rose from 45.0 million to 53.3 million over the 48 months of the Biden administration, before decreasing to 51.1 million between January and July of this year.
The number of undocumented immigrants rose from 10.2 million to 15.8 million during Biden’s term, according to CIS estimates, with two-thirds of the growth in the foreign-born population being undocumented. However, during Trump’s first six months, the count of undocumented immigrants is estimated to have dropped from 15.8 million to 14.8 million.
Such a decline aligns with official statistics. From January to July this year, total U.S. employment hasincreased by 1.5 millionhowever, the number of foreign-born employees who are employed has decreased by 500,000.
Strengthening this image is an estimated 5.8 percent decrease — that’s $3.7 billion — in funds sent as remittancesfrom the United States to Mexico. This implies that a significant number of undocumented immigrants from Mexico have departed the U.S. in the last six months. And as immigration from Mexico,according to PewThe percentage of total immigration before the Great Recession increased to 31 percent of total immigration during the Biden administration, which could result in a larger decline in remittances sent back to home countries by more recent immigrants.
“A historic immigration drop,” The Wall Street Journal featured a headline on Monday, “is transforming the job market.” It references aAmerican Enterprise Institute report three authors who predict the first year of negative net migration in decades, with 205,000 more people leaving the country than arriving.
They voice concern about potential declines—or even negative—economic growth in coming years, which they project to be a drop of 0.03 or 0.04 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Naturally, for U.S. citizens and legal residents, this could be somewhat balanced by an increase in GDP per capita.
Under these cold statistics, there are surely heartfelt — and painful — human experiences, of dedicated immigrants whose dreams of progress and wealth have been shattered, of tight-knit families and determined young people who feel compelled to leave everything behind. It’s easy to understand why individuals worried that even a simple interaction with law enforcement, such as being a victim in a traffic incident, could result in years spent in a Salvadoran jail might conclude that America is no longer a safe place for them.
It’s clear how many Americans empathize with individuals in such circumstances, even though they sidestep the unsettling possibility that those entering the U.S. without authorization may consist of a higher proportion of violent offenders compared to legal immigrants.
Will the Growth of the Illiberal Right Harm the Post-Trump GOP?
Another way to look at it is how many other Americans might place the ethical responsibility on those within the Biden administration who decided, for reasons that remain unclear, to allow millions of individuals into the country without a clear route to legal status, despite the fact that their policy effectiveness relies on the inappropriate tactic of threatening imprisonment in harsh foreign jails.
Individuals who favor a structured approach within the constitutional system, rather than policies shaped by Biden’s subtle methods or Trump’s loud declarations, must acknowledge that we remain as far from a bipartisan agreement on immigration law as we have been since the last such law was enacted 39 years ago. Those who supported the large-scale entry of undocumented immigrants during Biden’s administration or the current large-scale self-deportations under Trump, without considering the human impact, might want to reflect on whether more effective outcomes could be achieved through the constitutional process.
