Key Takeaways and Overview –The once-powerful Black Sea Fleet of Russia has been significantly weakened by a Ukrainian force that possesses almost no naval capabilities.
-By employing cleverly designed Neptune anti-ship missiles and creative sea drones such as the “Sea Baby,” Ukraine has managed to sink or harm more than a third of the Russian navy, including its leading vessel, the Moskva.
-Russia’s key goals—imposing a blockade, conducting an amphibious attack on Odesa, and firing cruise missiles without consequence—have all failed.
-This David-and-Goliath triumph has compelled the fleet to withdraw and has made it “functionally inactive,” a remarkable humiliation for Moscow.
The Russian Navy Suffered a Defeat in the Black Sea Conflict
Russia considers the Black Seato be its own “lake.” Although multiple nations have coastal cities along the Black Sea, Vladimir Putin holds the view that this area belongs toMoscow.
The majority of Russian oil is moved to the Black Sea.
This is also the warm-water base for a significant Russian naval fleet – at least prior to the conflict with Ukraine.
It is this fleet that has faced significant challenges throughout the conflict in Ukraine.
Russia lost its Black Sea flagship, theMoskva, in the initial phases of theconflict.
This was among the most sophisticated and up-to-date vessels in Russia’s entire naval fleet, and it was destroyed by Ukrainian anti-ship missiles in 2022.
Russia Intended to Launch a Seaborne Assault on Odesa
Another potential military scenario during the conflict was the probability ofRussiawould execute an amphibious assault on the strategically important port city ofOdesa.
This did not occur because Moscow realized its navy was poorly prepared for such a challenging mission while Ukraine strengthened its defenses near the port.
Remarkable Russian Navy Sufferings at the Hands of Ukraine
Russia has largely suffered setbacks in the Black Sea. Over one-third of its vessels have been damaged or destroyed throughout the conflict.
At least 26 ships have been removed from service. Notable vessels destroyed include the amphibious landing shipTsezar Kunikov and the missile corvette Ivanovets. Russia has also lost minesweepers and patrol vessels.
This makes it even more remarkable given that Ukraine possesses a very small navy. The defenders have achieved significant success near Crimea and in defending ships and facilities in Sevastopol.
Ukrainian Anti-Ship Technology Dominates
What has proven effective for Ukraine is theingenious use of Neptune anti-ship missilesand drones. There are also autonomous watercraft, such as theSea Baby and Magura V5, as well as the Storm Shadow missile. The Russian Black Sea fleet has moved east to Novorossiysk, located in Russia’s Krasnodar region.
This has allowed more Ukrainian commercial ships to export grain, a major advancement, since Russia had originally intended to block Ukrainian vessels transporting these agricultural goods.
“Where is the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation? It’s gone! This is a fact of the enemy’s victory,” stated Duman deputy Yevgeny Fedorov in a video posted on X in 2024 by Ukrainian Anton Gerashchenko,Newsweek noted.
Of course, the fleet’s air defense systems will be active on the ships,” Federov stated, “but the Russian fleet as a functional unit does not exist in the Black Sea.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet Is a Paper Tiger
The fleet of the Black Sea has been referred to as “functionally inactive,” by the British Ministry of Defense. Ukraine has discovered the method to produce ananti-access/area deniallayered defense system featuring its missiles, drones, and unmanned surface vessels.
Russia has been taken aback by the effectiveness of this approach, and it may offer important lessons for other navies to consider. Specifically, it highlights that naval warfare has experienced a major shift. This represents asymmetric warfare carried out by Ukraine, and its military forces appear to have won the Battle of the…Black Sea.
No Russian Strategic Goals Were Achieved
Russia aimed to launch cruise missiles without restriction against Ukrainian cities and military targets. It intended to establish a blockade and planned to carry out an amphibious attack to target Ukrainians in the southern region. Ukraine has successfully prevented all of these goals.
One factor contributing to this is the creativity of Ukrainian engineers in developing homegrown weapons like the Magura V5. “The explosive-filled vehicle was created to accomplish what many believed was impossible: traverse extended distances through rough seas, remain undetected by radar, and deliver between 500 to 700 pounds of explosives to far-off targets,”according to the Conversation.
The Maguras have ruined the Black Sea fleet’s new flagship – theAdmiral Makarov. The drones were also credited with the destruction of theIvanovets – a missile corvette.
To make matters worse, as the Black Sea fleet moved to Novorossiysk, Russian ships faced renewed attacks from longer-range Sea Baby drone vessels loaded with explosives, capable of traveling more than 500 miles and striking effectively. These Sea Baby drones are also able to deploy mines that have harmed the Russian naval forces. Additionally, these sophisticated unmanned vessels are equipped with rocket launchers.
This arms manufacturing has been crucial to Ukraine’s naval achievements. The Russians have faced humiliation and defeat, which greatly frustrates Putin and his admirals. The Black Sea Fleet is now a mere shadow of its former self and no longer plays a significant role in the conflict.
The David and Goliath conflict that Russia has lost has drawn attention from other groups attempting to employ unconventional warfare against larger adversaries, like the Iran-supported Houthi militants in Yemen.
These insurgents caused significant disruption to commercial shipping and military ships, even though the U.S. Navy did not lose any vessels amid continuous assaults from Houthi missiles and drones.
The Chineseare also observing and likely equipping their various militarized islands with anti-ship missiles and explosive underwater drones that could challenge the U.S. Navy and its partners.
The conflict in the Black Sea has caused humiliation for Russia. The Ukrainians have successfully implemented an anti-access/area-denial approach, even without a naval force. Military ships globally will need to avoid coastal areas as missiles, drones, and unmanned boats equipped with explosives cause more destruction than anticipated.
This will act as a realization for navies that have previously believed that having many ships could scare a smaller opponent. The Ukrainians have shown this to be false.
About the Writer: Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Let the World Slip Away: a Conservative Approach to International Relations and People, Technology, and Information: Emerging Patterns in Military Conflicttwo additional books. Brent was the founder and chief executive officer of a technology company that used artificial intelligence to forecast global events. He worked as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and provided guidance to the senator on defense and international policy matters. He has instructed classes at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent previously served as a US Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on X @BMEastwood.
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