By Ben Aris in Berlin
Donald Trump made a sudden change of position regarding Ukraine during a lengthy, meandering speech at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), stating that Ukraine could reclaim all its territory lost in the conflict with Russia, provided European NATO allies provide it with enough American-made weapons.
His shift in attitude acknowledges that his “minerals diplomacy” has not succeeded: in every conflict he has settled or tried to mediate, American business interests have been a key factor, particularly in securing mineral agreements whenever feasible.
Trump put Ukraine in a weak positionminerals dealon April 30, which was initially described as “worse than VersaillesWhen he first became involved in the Russo-Ukraine conflict. At that time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy demanded that the agreement include specific security assurances, which Trump outright rejected, stating that the presence of American companies in Ukraine would be sufficient protection. Trump has also been attempting to reach similar agreements with Putin. Trump’s speech at the UN is effectively an acknowledgment that his mineral diplomacy with Russia is not yielding results.
UN drama
Trump met with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy during the UNGA gathering in New York. When questioned by journalists following their discussion, Zelenskiy provided minimal details but hinted that a significant disclosure was imminent. Nevertheless, Trump emphasized that the obligation to provide funding for weapons supplied to Ukraine lies with Europe.
“After examining and comprehending the military and economic conditions in Ukraine and Russia, I think that Ukraine, with the assistance of the EU, has the ability to fight and reclaim all of Ukraine in its original state,” Trumpwroteon his Truth Social profile.
He added, ‘Ukraine has the potential to go even further.’ Referring to Russia as a ‘paper tiger,’ he stated that Moscow is dealing with ‘significant economic challenges’ and that ‘a large portion of the funds are being allocated to the war.’
During a combined meeting with Zelenskiy, Trump expressed his view that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse, expressing regret that his previous “positive relationship” with President Vladimir Putin had “proven to be insignificant.”
Commentators have noted that the peace effort led by Trump has garnered attention.kicked off in Riyadhon February 18 and reached its peak with hisseven-point “last chance” peace proposalin April in London, has now largely failed, following his push for a bilateral or trilateral meeting between Zelenskiy and Putin at the White House summiton August 18 which has led to nothing.
Mineral diplomacy
As bne Muara Digital Team reported, there are two sets of talksrunning concurrently: Trump initially proposed the concept of a 30-day ceasefirein February as a lead-in to discussions, but Russian President Vladimir Putin declined, not wanting to relinquish the military advantage the Russian Armed Forces (AFR) have gained on the front lines. Nevertheless, alongside these diplomatic initiatives, Trump has clearly expressed his interest in accessing Russia’s extensive reserves of raw materials and desires to do business with Russia.
Control over minerals plays a central role in the policies of the Trump administration, and he has a tendency to intimidate businesses both within the country and internationally:Reutersreported on September 24 that the Trump government isrequesting a 10% ownership share in Lithium Americasas it reworks the conditions of the company’s $2.26 billion Department of Energy loan for its Thacker Pass lithium project with General Motors.
As widely reported, the U.S.’s near-complete reliance on China’s monopoly over the production of essential minerals and rare earth metals (REMs) represents a significant strategic vulnerability; Trump was swiftly compelled to retreat after attempting to impose triple-digit tariffs on China as part of his initiative.Liberation Daytrade policy following Beijing’s efforts to restrict exports of critical materials to the US, which its technology industry completely relies on.
Russia could be a viable answer to this issue. It possesses the second largest reserves of rare earth metals in the world, following China andPutin may be willing to engage in negotiationswith the US in joint production. However, no agreements have been finalized yet.
During his speech at the United Nations, Trump listed a series of “unresolvable” conflicts that he claimed to have resolved – and even correctly mentioned “Armenia and Azerbaijan” after previously mixing up Azerbaijan with nations such as “Albania” and “Columbia” multiple times in the past week.
However, in each of these conflicts, he has also arranged mineral deals on the side during negotiations, or at least business agreements, although the Iran-Israel conflict is more complex for clear reasons. Trump’s assertions about ending conflicts are connected to his ‘America First’ initiative aimed at securing US access to essential minerals after his March 2025 Executive Order on domestic production. Numerous ceasefires involve informal or formal mineral-related incentives, although this is not always the case, and some remain just promises rather than completed agreements.
Russian business talks
The leader of Russia’s state-owned wealth fundKirill DmitrievHe mentioned at the beginning of the discussions that he is managing a “parallel track” with the United States concerning business relationships and has attended every high-level meeting between Putin and senior U.S. officials, despite providing limited information about the conversations.
During theAlaska summitOn August 15, during the meeting between the two presidents, it was reported that they talked about an agreement that would remove aviation restrictions and enable the US aircraft manufacturer Boeing to resume sales to Russia in return for access to Russia’s virtual monopoly over titanium production. Since then, Trump has provided a comparable sanctions relief deal for the Belarusian national airline. Belavia,which has had restrictions removed after the release of 52 political prisoners on September 11.
Similarly, after the Anchorage meeting, Putin paved the way forExxonMobil’s re-entry into the Sakhalin-1 oil projectworth billions of dollars for the company. Putin has also proposed Trump business opportunities to develop Russia’s extensive reserves of rare earth metals (REMs), and in Anchorage, Trump mentioned that Russia and the U.S. could collaborate on developing Alaska’s REMs resources.
Nevertheless, all these attempts seem to have been in vain, and now Trump appears to be abandoning the talks. Earlier, he believed the Ukraine discussions would be the simplest, but they have ended up being the “most challenging.”
Putin is still open to discussions, eager to achieve major gainssanctions relief, but only according to his conditions. As long as Trump is in office, he offers Putin’s greatest opportunity to have some of the approximately 30,000 sanctions imposed on Russia removed. However, Putin has remained firm, demanding that Bankova (Ukraine’s counterpart to the Kremlin) agree to all his requirements, which were outlined in the unsuccessful 2022 plan. Istanbul peace dealand include: recognition by the West of Russia’s authority over the five occupied areas; a legally enforceable assurance from Kyiv regarding no-NATO expansion; a restoration of constitutional neutrality; and a decrease in the scale of Ukraine’s armed forces, along with other elements.
Zelenskiy has dismissed all these requests and has maintained that aFull cessation of hostilities must be implemented.Before any discussions can even start, he has also refused to hand over any territory to Russia immediately, stating that it goes against Ukraine’s constitution.
As hopes for an end to the conflict in Ukraine this year diminish, analysts are reassessing and getting ready for a prolonged war. TheThe IMF has recently updated its projection for Ukraine., increasingly its forecast for funding needs in 2026, rising from $37.5 billion to $65 billion – an amount Ukraine will find difficult to secure and could lead to a macroeconomic collapse, as bne Muara Digital Team detailed in a feature:Ukraine and Russia’s financial plans compared.
However, Trump’s sudden change in position indicates that the Trump administration will be significantly more open to selling advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine, as the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)escalates its missile attackson high-value Russian economic assets, including attempting to dismantle Russian refinerieswhich has already cut production by 20% since August. Russia has economic problems and they are getting worse. Kyiv is aiming to strengthen its position by limiting Russia’s capacity to produce and export oil that is financing the conflict, as Western sanctions target Russia’s oil industry have largely failed.
Stricter approach, but still just words
Trump has markedly strengthened his stance towards Russia after previously remaining neutral since he assumed office in January. The US has sent Ukraineno moneyand Trump has not introduced any new sanctions against Russia at all since the beginning of the year. When asked by a reporter in New York whether NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes that enter their airspace, he answered “yes.” Four NATO nations have reported violations of their airspace in just the past few weeks, starting with Poland drone incursion on September 10.
Zelenskiy referred to his discussion with Trump as a “major change,” while U.S. media characterized Trump’s approach as an “unusual shift.” Previously, he had consistently claimed that Ukraine was in a “poor position” and that Zelenskiy had “no leverage,” stating that Zelenskiy would need to give up land to stop the conflict. Trump’s updated stance represents the first instance where he has openly stated that Kyiv is capable of winning the war.
Nevertheless, analysts remain skeptical about Trump’s statements. The unpredictable Trump has yet to address sanctions against Russia, neither during the New York meeting nor in later statements, and has consistently emphasized that it is Europe’s duty to finance Ukraine’s military efforts.
“Putin and Russia face significant economic challenges, and this is the moment for Ukraine to take action,” he wrote, but highlighted that Washington’s involvement would be restricted to supplying NATO with arms, and only in the event that Washington is compensated for the assistance.
Some analysts believe the shift can be viewed as Trump abandoning the possibility of securing business agreements with Putin and instead focusing on his alternative strategies for generating revenue: increasing arms sales to Ukraine through Europe and pressuring the EU to reduce its imports of Russian oil and gas, thereby boosting the importation of American hydrocarbons to fill the gap.
As part of his trade discussions with the EU earlier this year, he convinced European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to pledge to boost European energy imports to $750 billion over three years – a agreement some analysts referred to as “delusional.” The United States has already largely taken over from Russia as a major source of gas, creating a new dependency on American LNG.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the change in focus, statingFox Newsthat “the US has no intention of implementing additional sanctions on Moscow as long as European nations keep buying Russian oil.” Following the recent Paris summiton September 4, Trump declined to support European peace plan suggestions, instead urging the EU to implementsecondary penalties against China and India to limit their trade with Russian oil.
Rubio stated that European allies should take the initial steps to limit the Kremlin’s income and cautioned that Washington could also reevaluate its role as a mediator. “The United States is the only country capable of communicating with both parties involved in the conflict,” Rubio mentioned.
The EU gave only superficial support to Trump’s requests in its most recent statement.nineteenth sanctions package, but has declined to use tariffs as a “political tool,” von der Leyen stated, and is much more reliant on Chinese trade than the United States is.
