As children get ready to return to school, specialists indicate that parents purchasing backpacks, pens, and other essentials have not yet encountered the complete impact of the price increases anticipated to affect retailers in the next few months.
They could, nevertheless, observe that their children’s packed lunches cost more than they did last year.
The average cost of preparing a school lunch in 2025 is $6.15, representing a 3% increase from the start of the 2024 school year, as reported by areportAccording to Deloitte’s Consumer Industry Center, a peanut butter and jelly sandwich lunch that includes an apple, baby carrots, cookies, and milk is the most affordable packed lunch at $4.84 — however, it experienced the largest price rise compared to last year, increasing by 6% due to increased retail expenses.
To stay ahead of upcoming tariffs, numerous companies have accumulated inventory — such as school supplies and clothing — in an attempt to maintain low prices for consumers for a longer period, according to specialists. However, many food products are more affected by tariffs since they spoil quickly and are not easily stored in large quantities. As a result, parents may experience the impact of these tariffs more clearly when buying groceries.
The first signs of movement appear in items that can’t be easily stored, things that spoil quickly, and products with limited local production,” said Neil Bradley, executive vice president and chief policy officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “For example, take bananas: there’s no domestic supply, and they spoil very quickly. If you’re giving your child a banana for lunch at school, you’re already noticing these price changes.
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Reducing funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, previously called food stamps, is increasing the financial pressure on school cafeterias. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted by President Donald Trump in July, features a 20% reduction in funding for the program that offers food assistance to low-income families and provides free meals for children through 2034. These adjustments might result in at least 18.3 million students no longer being able to access free meals, according to the Urban Institute.estimates.
Republican legislators and the White House have justified the SNAP reductions, stating that the adjustments are essential to encourage employment, cut public expenditure, and guarantee that resources are…serving the “truly needy.”
How increasing expenses from tariffs are affecting your child’s lunchbox
The U.S. imports numerous food products, including meat, fruits, and vegetables, which have historically been subject to very low tariffs, as stated by the Chamber of Commerce. However, these low tariff rates have increased significantly in recent months.
For instance, the average effective tariff rate on dairy products, eggs, and honeyjumpedFrom 6.12% in 2024 to 11.26% now, and the duty on meat increased from 1.97% to 10.87%, according to Chamber statistics.
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In addition to the traditional PB&J sandwich, the Deloitte report also analyzed the expenses associated with various meals that parents may prepare for their kids.
A meal kit resembling Lunchables, including meat, cheese, crackers, a fruit cup, pudding, and a soda can, is priced at $5.92, reflecting a 2% increase compared to the previous year. A salad paired with healthy snacks comes in at $6.54, an increase of 1% from last year. Meanwhile, a chicken and avocado quesadilla with side dishes and a juice costs $7.30, which is 2% higher than in 2024.
Tariff-induced price hikes on food items are prolonging a time of elevated food inflation. Grocery prices havegrown23% over the last five years, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Since groceries are a fundamental need that people purchase frequently, they often pay closer attention to food inflation compared to rising costs of other products, even though food prices are not the only ones increasing.risingat a more gradual rate than overall prices, said Sarah Foster, an economic analyst at Bankrate.
Grocery shopping ‘would likely not leave you feeling so negative about inflation overall if it were something you could remove from your budget,’ Foster observed.
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A lunch brought from home costs twice as much as a school-provided meal, which typically averages around $3. Nevertheless, 42% of parents still choose to pack their children’s lunches, with healthier choices, better taste, and more variety being the main reasons, as reported by the Deloitte survey. The research also discovered that children from higher-income households are more inclined to bring their own lunches.
Increases in the cost of clothing and educational materials are expected in the future.
Although parents may have found some back-to-school discounts on products like backpacks, pencils, and new shoes, specialists predict that these prices won’t stay low for much longer. According to Chamber of Commerce data, the average effective tariff rates for these items have increased to 21.15%, 16.06%, and 26.46%, respectively.
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There are signs that prices in the next few quarters could increase more rapidly, benefiting consumers who buy items ahead of time,” stated Michael Clayton, a professor at American University’s Kogod School of Business. “This clearly continues to be an evolving situation, as negotiations with major trading partners are still underway.
Although slightly more than a quarter of companies indicated in the Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook survey that they increased prices during the two weeks ending August 10, 47% of businesses stated they plan to raise prices within the next six months.
Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillanconfirmedthat similar price increases are expected in the near future during a call with analysts on Thursday, following the company’s release of its second-quarter 2026 financial results.
See more: Walmart claims that tariffs are increasing expenses, yet it is attempting to prevent price hikes — at least for now.
SNAP benefits are worsening financial struggles for families with limited income
The increasing expense of school meals adds to the financial pressure on households that are already facing economic challenges. A Bankrate report released in JunefoundFewer than half of Americans have sufficient emergency funds to last three months, with approximately a quarter having no emergency savings whatsoever.
“When each dollar in your wallet matters… any dollar that doesn’t stretch as far as it used to can really force you to make difficult decisions about managing your finances,” Foster said.
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Exacerbating the problem are reductions in SNAP benefits, which offer essential food support to over 40 million Americans.
Some modifications to eligibility guidelines and stricter work requirements may not directly reduce children’s benefits, but they create challenges for families in qualifying for or keeping their benefits, said Alexis Bylander, a senior child-nutrition policy analyst at the Food Research & Action Center, a non-profit advocacy organization.
If families believe the benefits they are receiving have become insufficient due to recent reductions and policy changes, they may decide that participating in SNAP is not worth the effort of keeping track of work hours and reporting income, according to Bylander. Should they opt out of the program, their children will no longer be eligible for direct certification, which schools use to identify students who automatically qualify for free meals.
Once a child is no longer automatically eligible, they must apply for free meals via a separate school application process, which leads to many children not receiving the assistance they need, Bylander stated.
There are language and literacy challenges when completing the form. There is a sense of shame or embarrassment associated with being recognized as a low-income family,” she mentioned. “It’s difficult for families to correctly calculate their household income if they have multiple jobs, seasonal work, or are involved in the gig economy, and they’re worried about filling it out wrong.
See more: “Medicaid and food stamps are easy targets”: House bill introduces historic reductions to Medicaid and SNAP
Schools in states that have Healthy School Meals for All initiatives, offering free breakfast and lunch to every student, may face challenges if federal funding is reduced, potentially forcing them to cut their own SNAP benefits or limit eligibility. Reductions in SNAP support are also anticipated to decrease the number of schools qualifying for the Community Eligibility Provision, which enables high-poverty schools to provide free meals without requiring families to complete SNAP applications.
Bylander anticipates that these modifications, combined with the increasing expense of groceries, will negatively impact families with limited income.
Children require access to nutritious food both at school and at home,” she stated. “The reductions in SNAP jeopardize this for their home setting and also for their ability to obtain food while at school.
Officials from the White House claim that reducing SNAP benefits will help reduce fraudulent activities and make the program more effective for those who truly require assistance.
Since President Trump assumed office, real wages have increased, overall inflation has decreased, and the costs of everyday items such as gasoline and eggs have significantly dropped,” said White House spokesperson Kush Desai in an email to the Muara Digital Team. “As the administration’s growth-focused initiatives, including tariffs, deregulation, and the tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill, begin to take effect, and as trillions of dollars in investments keep flowing into our economy, Americans can be confident that the best is still ahead as we move toward a new era of American excellence.
Desai did not directly address the claims by experts that tariffs have increased food costs and could potentially affect the prices of school supplies and clothing in the next few months.
How customers are reducing their expenses
Although American consumers may not have fully experienced the effects of tariffs on prices yet, according to experts, shoppers are already adjusting their behaviors to seek savings in their expenses.
Reports suggest that prices have risen considerably in numerous categories, yet total spending is expected to decrease compared to last year, suggesting increased reuse of items and parents focusing on necessities rather than luxuries,” Clayton stated. “Parents are also seeking out ‘deals’ or discounted products to stretch their budget further.
See more: Discount retailer Ross shows another indication that shoppers are looking for deals this fall.
Deloitte’s Food Frugality Index foundThe practice of economical shopping at the supermarket has increased since October 2024. In addition to searching for discounts, customers are moving towards store-branded products, visiting budget-friendly stores, and choosing more affordable food items.
Data indicates that under these economic conditions, many consumers are likely to choose private-label brands to cut costs,” Clayton stated. “The main issue is usually whether consumers will switch back to premium options in the future after opting for more affordable choices during these tough economic times.
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If you’re new to managing your money or building your career and have questions about handling your finances, we’d like to hear from you. Write toDollar Signs, The Muara Digital Team’s new advice column, atdollarsigns@Muara Digital Team.
