Israel is poised to initiate another significant military operation, this time in Gaza City, which is experiencing severe food shortages.
The global community, together with almost all Palestinians and numerous Israelis, have long desired an end to the conflict — and a truce appeared feasible as recently as last month. So why is the fighting expected to intensify, almost two years following Hamas’ attack on October 7?
Some critics of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claim he is extending the conflict for political gain. Netanyahu attributes the ongoing situation to Hamas, which continues to hold approximately 20 hostages, and argues that negative comments about Israel’s actions during the war are only strengthening the militant group’s resolve.
U.S. President Donald Trump claims he desires an end to the conflict and the return of the hostages. However, his representative, Steve Witkoff, left ceasefire negotiations last month, attributing the failure to Hamas. Since Israel terminated a ceasefire in March that Trump facilitated, the president has not publicly urged Israel to alter its approach. It remains uncertain whether the U.S. is following a different plan behind the scenes.
Hamas stated last week that it has agreed to a ceasefire plan which mediators said was almost the same as one previously approved by Israel. The U.S. and Israel have not yet made any public response. It remains uncertain whether these allies, who have recently suggested they are aiming for a full agreement, are secretly working on something.
A deeper examination of the reasons the conflict persists without any clear resolution.
Israelis are participating in large demonstrations demanding a ceasefire to secure the return of hostages. They claim the conflict persists because Netanyahu is seeking to maintain his position in power.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition government relies on right-wing parties that aim to keep the conflict going until Hamas is completely destroyed, support the large-scale relocation of Palestinians to different nations, and restore Jewish settlements that Israel removed in 2005.
They have warned they will withdraw if Netanyahu concludes the war without achieving complete victory. Opposition parties claim they will support his government if he secures a deal for the hostages, but this would still significantly weaken Netanyahu before next year’s elections.
If the Israeli leader loses their position, they would be significantly more exposed to ongoing corruption allegations and public investigations into the events of the October 7, 2023, attack.
Netanyahu rejects any such intentions. He asserts that the conflict needs to continue until all the captives are released and Hamas is defeated, stating that any deal that leaves the group unscathed and armed would enable it to regroup and launch another significant attack.
Netanyahu claims that the conflict might conclude immediately if Hamas frees the captives and disarms.
However, he has also stated that Israel will continue to have indefinite security control over Gaza and support what he refers to as the voluntary departure of a significant portion of Gaza’s population.
Palestinians and numerous others argue that this would constitute forced displacement — and it is not acceptable to Hamas.
The armed group has stated its willingness to free the remaining 50 captives—fewer than half of those Israel believes are still alive—in return for Palestinian prisoners, a permanent ceasefire, and an Israeli retreat. It has also mentioned that it would transfer authority to other Palestinians.
But it has dismissed the idea of laying down its weapons or fleeing into exile.
Even if Hamas were to agree to surrender its weapons, it would be challenging to confirm. Other militant groups could quickly take Hamas’ place in leading what many Palestinians— including those who oppose Hamas—consider to be a justified armed struggle against military occupation.
This is what occurred when the Palestine Liberation Organization, the primary militant organization of that time, chose to relocate to Tunisia following Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Hamas emerged in Gaza at the beginning of a Palestinian uprising five years later.
From Hamas’ viewpoint, relinquishing weapons would make Palestinians vulnerable against Israel’s continued military control and the growth of settlements on territories they seek for a future nation. To them, this would nearly eliminate any hope for their national goal.
In June, Trump brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran by instructing Netanyahu via phone and social media to halt a series of airstrikes. This remarkable involvement in an active Israeli military campaign highlighted the significant influence the United States holds over its key ally.
There has been no indication of that regarding the conflict in Gaza.
Trump has called for Hamas to free the captives while not publicly urging Israel to stop or reduce its military actions — unlike former U.S. President Joe Biden, who attempted to do so with only partial effectiveness.
In addition to supplying billions of dollars in military equipment to Israel, the United States has protected it from United Nations demands for a ceasefire, imposed penalties on international judges investigating Israeli officials, suppressed campus demonstrations, and warned Canada with potential increased tariffs due to its position on the Middle East conflict.
The impact of other countries on Israel, including over 30 Western-aligned nations that have urged an end to the conflict, is minimal.
A reduction in U.S. support could worry Israelis and potentially push Netanyahu to agree to concessions that might result in a ceasefire — but there’s no indication of this happening. Additionally, it remains uncertain what additional pressure could be applied to Hamas in Gaza, given that almost all of its top leaders and thousands of fighters have been killed in one of the most severe and damaging military campaigns since World War II.
On Monday, Trump informed journalists that there could be a “definitive resolution” in Gaza within the next two to three weeks, without providing further details.
I believe we’re performing exceptionally well,” he stated. “However, it must, it must come to an end.
